When Will Arihant Capital Go Up ? Which Market Cycle Stage Is The Stock In ?

You are currently viewing When Will Arihant Capital Go Up ? Which Market Cycle Stage Is The Stock In ?

Based on the candlestick chart for ‘Arihant Capital Mkts Ltd’ on a monthly time frame, we can analyze the current stage within the market cycle according to Wyckoff methodology.

Let’s break down the price action visible on the chart:

Previous Downtrend (Before 2022): The chart shows a significant downtrend leading into the year 2022, where we observe a sequence of red candles indicating a markdown phase. This is consistent with the Wyckoff market cycle phase of markdown.



Accumulation Phase (Early 2022): Around the beginning of 2022, there is a change in character. The presence of a few green candles suggests demand is coming in, indicating a possible accumulation phase.


However, the volume appears to be mixed, with some months showing higher volume on red candles, which could be seen as efforts by larger operators to halt the markdown and start accumulating shares.


Test for Supply (Mid-2022): Following the initial signs of accumulation, there seems to be a test for supply as indicated by smaller candlestick bodies and wicks, which suggest a balance between supply and demand.


Sign of Strength (Late 2022 into Early 2023): The latter half of 2022 and early 2023 show green candles with increasing closing prices, which could be interpreted as a sign of strength (SOS). This suggests that the stock is in a markup phase as demand overtakes supply.



Upthrusts/Tests (2023): We see some price spikes with wicks on the top, which could be upthrusts indicating tests for selling pressure. These are crucial to confirm whether the markup can sustain.



Recent Price Action (2024): The latest five candles leading into 2024 show increased volatility with alternating red and green candles. The wicks on both sides of the candles indicate indecision, with both buying and selling pressures present. This might suggest a possible distribution phase or a re-accumulation if the buying continues to be dominant.


In conclusion, the most recent phase appears to be a potential distribution or a re-accumulation phase. The next few candles will be critical in determining the true nature of this phase.


If we see a continuation of green candles with increasing volume, it could confirm further accumulation and a continuation of the markup phase. If we see a predominance of red candles with increasing volume, it could suggest the beginning of a markdown phase.


The last five candles show mixed signals with no clear dominance of either buyers or sellers. However, the presence of long wicks on both sides indicates that while there is both buying and selling interest, there’s not yet a clear winner in terms of market direction.


For more specific advice, closely watching the volume accompanying price movements and looking for a definitive break above resistance or below support can provide further confirmation of the stock’s direction.