Will BSE Go Up Or Crash & Current Market Cycle Stage Of The Stock !

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The chart shows a monthly time-frame chart for BSE Ltd. listed on the NSE. The chart shows a significant upward trend that began roughly in early 2021 and has continued with some volatility until the current period shown in 2024.

To provide a thorough analysis in line with the Wyckoff Method, let’s break down the chart by observing the price action and corresponding volume where visible:

 

Early to Mid-2020s Consolidation Phase: Prior to the markup, the chart shows a period of consolidation where the price fluctuated within a range, indicative of the Wyckoff Accumulation phase.

 

This would be where the Composite Man is likely accumulating shares in anticipation of the next bull phase.

 

 

Markup Phase (2021 Onwards): Starting in 2021, there’s a clear markup phase characterized by a series of long green candles, showing a strong uptrend.

 

This is associated with increased demand and buying activity, suggesting that this is the phase where the price has been marked up by institutional interest, as per the Wyckoff Price Cycle.

 

Volume Analysis: The volume bars during the markup phase appear to be increasing, which supports the price rise, indicating that the upward movement is backed by substantial buying interest

Wyckoff’s Law of Effort versus Result would suggest that the effort (volume) is in harmony with the result (price increase).

 

Latest 5 Candles Analysis (2024): The last five monthly candles show increased volatility, with large wicks on both sides.

However, the price has not made significant new highs, which could be indicative of a potential Distribution phase starting to form, where the Composite Man might be offloading shares to the public.

 

Volume in Recent Months: The latest candles should be compared with corresponding volume.

If the large wicks and volatile price action occur with high volume, this might be an early sign of supply entering the market, hinting at a possible upcoming markdown phase.

 

Current Price Position (Latest Month): The latest candle needs to be examined for its close in relation to the opening, as well as the size and position of its wicks. A close near the low with a long upper wick could imply selling pressure.

 

Based on the Wyckoff Method, the price action suggests that careful monitoring is needed for signs of distribution which could precede a potential markdown.

It’s critical to note that while the chart suggests a potential shift from markup to distribution, the transition to markdown is not guaranteed and requires further confirmation through price and volume action in subsequent periods.