Will IIFL Securities Go Up Or Crash & Current Market Cycle Stage Of The Stock !

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Based on the candlestick chart for “IIFL Securitieson a monthly scale, I will proceed to evaluate the market cycle stages as per Wyckoff’s methodology and comment on the most recent candles so that you are able to guess whether it will go up or crash in the subsequent months:

Starting from the left:

  • The chart commences with a period of lateral movement around early 2020, which could indicate an accumulation phase where smart money might be accumulating shares, but this is not clear without a closer look at the volume and the price action context from preceding months.

Mid-2020 to Early 2021:

  • We observe a noticeable uptrend, where the price has increased significantly, marked by a series of green candles. This suggests a markup phase following the possible accumulation. The rising volumes during this phase support the markup indication as it signifies increased interest and buying pressure.

Mid-2021:

  • There’s a large red candle followed by a green one, with high volume, indicating high volatility and possible re-accumulation or a shakeout. Shakeouts can often occur after a markup, as they allow big players to acquire more shares from panicked selling.

2022 to Mid-2023:

  • The movement here is somewhat sideways with a slight downward bias in a trading range, which could be indicative of a distribution or a re-accumulation phase depending on the broader market context. Without clear signs of a downtrend, it is difficult to conclude a distribution phase.

Mid-2023 Onwards:

  • There’s a strong uptrend with increasing green candles and rising volume, which suggests a new markup phase. This could be the result of another round of accumulation and a sign that the stock might continue to rise if the trend persists.

Latest 5 Candles:

  • Focusing on the most recent five candles, we see a strong uptrend with the last candle showing a slight pullback as it’s red with an increase in volume. The wick on the last red candle suggests that there was a pushback from the sellers during the month, but buyers managed to close the price off the lows, indicating that buying pressure is still present.

Based on the Wyckoff method and the provided chart:

  • The latest phase is likely the markup phase, characterized by the uptrend.
  • The latest candle suggests some selling pressure but not enough to reverse the trend.

Forecasting:

  • If the uptrend continues with supporting volume, we could expect further upward movement.
  • If upcoming candles break below the low of the last red candle on high volume, it could signal a potential change of character, which might lead to a markdown phase.